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padding: 0px; width: 100%; height: 800px"></div> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#SwfDocumentViewer').FlexPaperViewer({ config: { SWFFile: '', Scale: 0.6, ZoomTransition: 'easeOut', ZoomTime: 0.5, ZoomInterval: 0.1, FitPageOnLoad: false, FitWidthOnLoad: true, FullScreenAsMaxWindow: false, ProgressiveLoading: false, MinZoomSize: 0.2, MaxZoomSize: 5, SearchMatchAll: true, InitViewMode: '', RenderingOrder: 'flash,html', StartAtPage: '', ViewModeToolsVisible: true, ZoomToolsVisible: true, NavToolsVisible: true, CursorToolsVisible: true, SearchToolsVisible: true, WMode: 'transparent', localeChain: 'en_US' } }); </script> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> var swfurl = document.getElementById("SwfFileUrl").innerHTML.toString().trim(); if (swfurl === "") { document.getElementById("ShowSwfDiv").innerHTML = ""; } </script> <div> <p style="text-indent: 25px;"> </p> <p></p> <div style="text-align: center;"></div> <p style="text-indent: 25px;"></p> <p align="left">    q?q来Q随着对“地条钢”、“落后能”的严厉打击Q我国钢铁行业“去产能”结果显著。但受h格回升、市场好转的影响Q“地条钢”死灰复燃风险加大,钢企扩能冲动明显。多位业内h士认为,随着后箋合规产能的持l释攑֏产能利用率不断提高,现有脆弱的供需q态势有可能被再次打破?/p> <p align="left">  9?7日,中国钢铁工业协会发布1-8月䆾钢铁行业q行情况Q数据显C,2019q前8月,全国生生铁5.45亿吨Q同比增?.85%Q生产粗?.65亿吨Q同比增?.11%Q生产钢?.04亿吨Q同比增?1.00%?/p> <p align="left">  ?月单月来看,全国生生铁7117万吨Q同比增?.08%Q增速较上月加快6.53个百分点Q生产粗?725万吨Q同比增?.29%Q增速较上月加快4.31个百分点Q生产钢?0639万吨Q同比增?.80%Q增速较上月加快0.21个百分点Q全国粗钢日?81.45万吨Q较7月䆾增加6.54万吨Q增q?.38%?/p> <p align="left">  ?019q前8月,我国_钢产量同比增长9.11%Q大大超出预期。”新当选的全联冉商会会长、中天钢铁集团有限公司董事长董才q_一天前全联冉商会召开2019q企业交大会上做出上述表述的,他表C,目前不少钢企提高冶炼强度Q高炉全面采用高品位矿粉Q{炉增加废钢比Q提高高炉利用系数、{炉冶炼频率,加之理水^的提升,从而全面提升了产量?/p> <p align="left">  但董才^q不否认Q不排除有部分违规量的存在。从中钢协发布的数据来看Q中钢协会员企业_钢产量同比增长5.91%Q非会员企业_钢产量增长19.38%。非会员企业产量增幅q高于会员企业增q?/p> <p align="left">  对于产量大幅上涨带来的问题,董才qC,从目前来看,我国C会钢铁库存量ƈ没有大幅增加Q因此量增长的主要原因仍是由需求所拉动Q说明我国钢铁需求仍然旺盛?/p> <p align="left">  数据昄Q?019q?-7月,固定资投资特别是基本徏设投资保持了相对E_的增长,房地产投资超预期Q同比增?0.2%Q高出去q同?.5个百分点。从以上数据看,房地产和基徏投资仍然构成了今q用钢的主要需求。虽然汽车量下?2.8%Q但家用电冰、空调、洗衣机和电视维持低增长Q火车机车、电梯、升降机、挖掘机l持较高增长速度。此外,我国对“一带一路”国际的直接投资间接促进了中国钢铁的需求。例如,今年1-7月䆾Q机电品出口达?4969亿元Q较d同期增长6.11%?/p> <p align="left">  董才q为,管有需求增长的因素Q但是量增长的能力要远q超出需求增加的E度。如果企业不能够自我U束、盲目扩大量,特别是新Z能的逐渐释放Q很可能出现供过于求的局面,供给端压力有所攑֤?/p> <p align="left">  同时Q一面是产量增加Q另一面,受h格回落、成本上升媄响,企业效益q一步下滑。数据显C,2019q?月当月全国钢铁企业、重炚w铁企业、和民营钢铁企业分别实现利润?42亿元?70亿元?80亿元Q利润水q_有下降?-7月,全国钢铁行业实现利润1676.3亿元Q同比下?5.1%Q中钢协l计的重点大中型企业实现利润1253亿元Q同比下?3.93%Q冶金商会统计的160安Ҏ营企业实现利?35亿元Q同比下?3.93%?/p> <p align="left">  中钢协会员企业同样如此。数据显C,8月䆾Q中钢协会员企业销售收?636亿元Q环比增?.99%Q实现利?33亿元Q环比下?8.86%。从?月来看,会员企业销售收入总额28066亿元Q同比增?.72%Q利?369亿元Q同比下?8.95%Q销售利润率4.88%Q较上年同期下降2.65个百分点?/p> <p align="left">  “今q钢企利润下?0%是大概率事g。”全联冶金商会创会名誉会长n喜子表示Q虽然今q铁矿石大幅上涨挤压了利润,但少C品供大于求,个别区域市场相对q剩Q也影响了钢材h根{?/p> <p align="left">  赵喜子表C,企业扩能冲动明显,此前去产能带来的市场空间再ơ压~。以沛_省ؓ例,2019q?-6月年沛_省钢铁企业粗钢?.24亿吨Q同比上?2.89%Q钢?.4亿吨Q同比上?3.69%。河北粗钢、钢材量上升幅度超q全国?/p> <p align="left">  值得注意的是Q一向减量生产的四季度,今年或不会下来。“今q的限和去q相比,只要辑ֈ低排放我们可以有序生。今q的产量在四季度q不会下来,但是需求会有所下降。因Z旦进入冬季,工程Q特别是东部地区会停下来。”董才^表示?/p> <p align="left">  但量增加风险也加大。中钢协常务副会长何文L此前坦言Q一D|间以来,受钢材h格回升、行业效益好转的影响Q钢企以各种名义新增冶炼能力、在产能减量|换q程中搞“数字游戏”等q法q规新增产能的冲动,以及“地条钢”死灰复燃的风险都在加大Q片面追求量的扩张和注重质量效益两种新旧发展理念的博弈呈胶着态势Q钢企应摒弃依靠产能扩张谋发展的思\?/p> <p align="left">  ҎQ董才^表示Q下一步应推进建立企业间能调节约束机Ӟ谨防盲目扩大产能Q避免恶性竞争。“特别要看到钢铁行业的M向下的趋势,盲目扩大产能有可能Ş成灾难性的后果Q不仅对行业整体不利Q本w也要陷入业过度竞争的旋涡。?nbsp;</p> <p style="margin: 0px; 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